• Question: How are earthquakes predicted in terms of size and time of occurrence?

    Asked by anon-174264 to Tim on 13 Jun 2018. This question was also asked by anon-174605.
    • Photo: Tim Craig

      Tim Craig answered on 13 Jun 2018:


      Unfortunately, we can’t predict earthquakes, either in terms of their size, or when they will occur.

      The best we can do is to estimate, based on various bits of geological evidence, what the maximum size of earthquake we might see in any given area is, and roughly when we might expect on to occur – but we’re talking about “sometime in the next decade”, rather than “sometime tomorrow”. And even then, there are still a lot of earthquakes that we don’t really understand that well, and that take us completely by surprise – one of the reasons why it is important to keep studying them!

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